Each time a new report is released, the pet food industry presents different figures, easily confusing businesses. This article juxtaposes the scale of the pet food market along a timeline, explains why sources differ, and, most importantly, shows how a distributor can translate macroeconomic data into their own inventory planning and sales targets.
Pet Food market size curve over the years
Let’s put the numbers side-by-side on a timeline. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in March 2025, the Vietnamese pet food market reached US$128.3 million in 2023 and US$141.9 million in 2024. According to Mordor Intelligence, the estimated size is approximately US$155.5 million in 2025 and US$167.98 million in 2026. Looking further ahead, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasts US$222.4 million in 2029, while Mordor Intelligence projects US$242.39 million for 2031. What’s noteworthy isn’t the individual numbers themselves, but the pattern of the trend: the difference between two consecutive years is always around US$13 million, with no breaks in the pattern. For a single point of sale, this has very specific implications. This type of market allows for long-term planning rather than chasing short-term trends. The immediate action should be to record this number and use it as a benchmark for comparing your store’s revenue year after year.
Why do different sources give different figures?
Many pet shop owners are confused when one source reports $155.5 million while another reports $167.98 million for two consecutive years, or when the same source provides two different forecasts: $243.7 million for 2030 and $242.39 million for 2031. This difference isn’t a statistical error but stems from three easily understandable reasons. First, the scope: some reports only include pet food, while others include accessories or other pet categories. Second, the method of calculation—whether at the import stage or at the final retail price—always differs significantly. Third, the timing of the figures and the exchange rate. The correct way to interpret these sources is to avoid trying to find a single, exact figure. Treat the sources as a range, using the low figure as a cautious scenario for financial planning and the high figure as a more expansive scenario, then stick to the trend instead of arguing over a few million dollar difference.
What do CAGRs of 7.61% and 9.4% actually mean in terms of a selling point?
The two most frequently cited growth rate figures for Pet Food are a CAGR of 7.61% per year from 2026 to 2031 according to Mordor Intelligence, and approximately 9.4% per year according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, higher than the global average. CAGR stands for compound annual growth rate, meaning the increase in the following year is added to the already larger growth of the previous year. At 9.4%, the market will double in about eight years; at 7.61%, the doubling time will take over nine years. This is where many dealers misread the figures. If your store grows 4% a year, you’re not moving forward; you’re falling behind because the market around you is growing twice as fast. Therefore, use 7.6% to 9.4% as the minimum threshold for your annual plan, and consider any growth below that threshold as a sign of losing market share, not a normal year.
The pet food market size is fragmented by product line.
The total figures are only useful when broken down. According to Mordor Intelligence, traditional pet food, including basic dry kibble and pate, accounts for approximately 49.76% of the pet food market share, while nutritional supplements and functional products are the fastest-growing group with a CAGR of 11.62% per year. Looking at these two figures side-by-side reveals a very clear structure. Nearly half of the pet food industry’s revenue is still in the basic product group, characterized by high repurchase frequency, transparent pricing, and thin profit margins. The rapid growth is concentrated in smaller groups with higher unit values and less price competition. For distributors, this implies not investing all capital in one group. The traditional group plays a crucial role in attracting repeat customers and generating cash flow, while the functional product group determines profit margins and helps differentiate the store from competitors. The nearly half share of the basic product group is also the first clue for allocating inventory capital.
Pet-based breakdown: dogs maintain the ground, cats provide speed.
The second axis of breakdown is by pet species, and the picture also has two similar layers. According to Mordor Intelligence, dogs will account for approximately 61.12% of the pet food industry’s revenue in 2025, meaning the majority of the current market share still comes from this group. But the cat group is where the speed lies, with projected growth of 8.27% per year until 2031. In other words, dogs are holding the revenue base while cats are driving the additional growth. A retailer focusing solely on the 61.12% share will import in a biased manner and miss out on the fastest-growing market segment; conversely, a retailer who follows the trend and abandons the dog segment will lose the stable sales that sustain their business. The sensible approach is to keep dogs as the mainstay and gradually increase the proportion of cat products according to the data’s trajectory, adding a few percentage points each year instead of abruptly changing the product range in a single import.
The market ceiling is still a long way off: all current figures are based on just 5%.
This is the most easily overlooked point when reading the report. The entire scale mentioned above is generated by a very small percentage of pets. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, only about 5% of dogs and cats in Vietnam are eating specialized pet food, out of an estimated 27 million pet animals. This means that over $160 million in revenue per year is being generated from less than one-twentieth of the potential customer base. The market ceiling is therefore still very far off, and current growth mainly comes from expanding the number of new users, not from competing for customers. For those considering the potential of a pet food business, this is a fundamental difference from saturated industries. The most profitable aspect for a sales point now is not lowering prices to attract customers from the store across the street, but persuading pet owners in the surrounding area to switch from leftover food to specialized pet food.
Convert your macroeconomic data into regional capacity.
A national figure only becomes useful when it’s translated to a specific area. A simple method, requiring no complex tools, involves four steps. Step one: Use the most recent national figure as the numerator. Step two: Estimate the proportion of the population or households in your area compared to the national average to divide accordingly. Step three: Adjust for living standards, as higher disposable income in large urban areas leads to higher spending on pets. Step four: Compare this to the recorded household pet ownership rates in 2023 (18.7% for dogs and 13.8% for cats) to estimate the number of pets within your service radius. The result isn’t an absolute, precise figure, but it’s sufficient to answer two important questions: Does your area have room for another sales point, and what percentage of that estimated space is your current sales occupying?
Set growth targets for retail outlets that align with industry rates.
Once you have estimated the area’s capacity, the next step is setting goals. The principle involves three layers. The first layer is the floor, matching the industry growth rate of approximately 7.6 to 9.4% per year; reaching this level simply means maintaining your current position. The second layer is gaining additional market share, which comes from converting pet owners who don’t use specialized feed into regular customers, and this is where true growth comes from. The third layer is expanding the product portfolio into higher-growth categories, specifically functional nutrition at 11.62% and cat products at 8.27% per year. Combining these three layers, a well-run store can absolutely aim for a higher growth rate than the market average. It’s crucial to differentiate these three layers at the end of the year, because only by knowing where the growth is coming from can you determine where to invest further in the following year.
Use product line weighting to restructure inventory.
The final layer of application is inventory, where macroeconomic data directly impacts cash flow. The principle is to have the capital allocation reflect the revenue allocation of the industry, then adjust it according to regional specifics. With traditional pet food accounting for about half the market share, this group should occupy the largest portion of the inventory capital, but needs a fast turnover rate due to thin margins and price competition. The remaining capital should prioritize the two groups that are growing faster than average: functional nutrition and cat products, accepting a slower turnover rate in exchange for better profit margins. Equally important is the review process. The actual inventory structure should be compared with the target allocation quarterly rather than annually, because the Pet Food market forecast changes with each report, and the purchasing habits of pet owners in the region shift much faster than the national average.
How does Petkin measure the size of the pet food market?
As an importer and distributor of pet food, Petkin views market reports from an operational, not a media, perspective. A market that grew from $128.3 million in 2023 to nearly $168 million in 2026 and is projected to exceed $240 million by 2031, while only 5% of dogs and cats use specialized pet food, indicates that the most difficult task isn’t sourcing products, but helping the retail network absorb that growth. Therefore, we chose a distribution model focused on dealers rather than direct retail sales, concentrating on officially imported goods, stable pricing policies, and supporting partners with product knowledge. Macroeconomic data is only valuable when translated into specific purchasing decisions for each store. If you are a pet shop owner or dealer and want to rebuild your product portfolio based on data rather than intuition, now is the right time to start.